شناسایی پیش‌ران های اصلی توسعه شهری با استفاده از رویکرد آینده‌نگاری (مطالعه موردی: کلان‌شهر تهران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جامعه‌شناسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

2 استاد گروه جامعه‌شناسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

آینده‌پژوهی به عنوان رشته‌ای نوظهور، در دهه‌های اخیر به شدت مورد توجه محافل دولتی، دانشگاهی و بنگاه‌های اقتصادی قرار گرفته است و در حال حاضر دستاورد‌های آینده‌پژوهان نقش مهمی در تصمیم‌سازی حکومت‌ها، نهادها و شرکت‌های خصوصی ایفا می‌کند. پژوهش حاضر با بهره‌گیری از تکنیک تحلیل اثرات متقابل که یکی از روش‌های متداول و مورد پذیرش آینده‌نگاری است، و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک‌مک به شناسایی پیش‌ران‌های اصلی توسعه شهری کلانشهر تهران پرداخته است. بدین منظور ابتدا با مطالعه منابع کتابخانه‌ای داخلی و خارجی، تمام عوامل مؤثر بر توسعه شهر تهران مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و پس از تهیه لیستی از این عوامل، در جلسات مصاحبه با صاحب نظران، یافته‌های پژوهش تکمیل شده و ‏مبتنی بر آنها پرسش‌نامه‌ تدوین شده و فرآیند نظرسنجی آغاز شد. در نهایت به کمک نرم افزار (MicMac) و با روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل، داده‌ها تحلیل و سناریوهای پژوهش ارائه شدند. نتایج به دست آمده از اجرای مدل حاکی از این است که کلانشهر تهران سیستمی ناپایدار می‌باشد و در صفحه پراکندگی هشت دسته (عوامل تاثیرگذار، دو وجهی، تاثیرپذیر، و مستقل) قابل شناسایی هستند. در نهایت از میان 51 عامل مورد بررسی پس از بررسی میزان و چگونگی تاثیرگذاری این عوامل بر یکدیگر و بر وضعیت آینده کلانشهر تهران با روش‌های مستقیم . غیرمستقیم 12 عامل کلیدی (مدیریت یکپارچه شهری،وضعیت اقتصادی، فقر، حکمروایی خوب شهری، عدالت اجتماعی و فضایی، امنیت، بیکاری، تحریم، اقتصاد متنوع، مشارکت، مسئولیت پذیری شهروندان، ارتقای آموزش و فرهنگ) بیشترین نقش را در وضعیت آینده توسعه و شکوفایی کلانشهر تهران دارند، انتخاب شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identify the main drivers of urban development using a future Studies approach (Case study: Tehran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • zeynab alamati 1
  • alireza kaldi 2
  • mehrdad navabakhsh 2
1 PhD Candidate in Development Sociology; Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Sociology, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Futurism as an emerging discipline has received a great deal of attention in recent decades from governments, academia, and businesses, and the achievements of futurists are now very important in the decision-making of governments, institutions, and private companies.The present study, by studying the resources of domestic and foreign libraries, examined all the factors affecting the development of Tehran and after preparing a list of these factors, in interviews with experts, the research findings were completed and based on them a questionnaire was developed and the process The poll begins. Finally, using software (MicMac) and interaction analysis method, data were analyzed and research scenarios were presented. According to the research findings, according to the results of Mick Mac, four factors of integrated urban management, economic situation, poverty and good urban governance were identified as the first four factors influencing the system. According to the score of direct and indirect influence of 51 factors, finally the first 12 factors affecting the future of Tehran metropolis development were selected to determine the final uncertainties and were scored according to the importance and predictability. And the drivers that had the most uncertainty in the future development of Tehran in order to present future scenarios of Tehran development were identified that the three variables of integrated urban management, economic status and poverty were selected as the most influential variables and uncertainty.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futurism"
  • Key drivers
  • uncertainly"
  • Urban development"
  • "
  • Tehran"
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