Identify the main drivers of urban development using a future Studies approach (Case study: Tehran)

Document Type : Original Article


1 PhD Candidate in Development Sociology; Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Sociology, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran


Futurism as an emerging discipline has received a great deal of attention in recent decades from governments, academia, and businesses, and the achievements of futurists are now very important in the decision-making of governments, institutions, and private companies.The present study, by studying the resources of domestic and foreign libraries, examined all the factors affecting the development of Tehran and after preparing a list of these factors, in interviews with experts, the research findings were completed and based on them a questionnaire was developed and the process The poll begins. Finally, using software (MicMac) and interaction analysis method, data were analyzed and research scenarios were presented. According to the research findings, according to the results of Mick Mac, four factors of integrated urban management, economic situation, poverty and good urban governance were identified as the first four factors influencing the system. According to the score of direct and indirect influence of 51 factors, finally the first 12 factors affecting the future of Tehran metropolis development were selected to determine the final uncertainties and were scored according to the importance and predictability. And the drivers that had the most uncertainty in the future development of Tehran in order to present future scenarios of Tehran development were identified that the three variables of integrated urban management, economic status and poverty were selected as the most influential variables and uncertainty.


Main Subjects

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Volume 3, Issue 1
May 2022
Pages 16-32
  • Receive Date: 17 October 2021
  • Revise Date: 11 January 2022
  • Accept Date: 12 January 2022
  • First Publish Date: 12 January 2022