مدیریت عدم قطعیت‌های آینده فضای شهری بر شیوع بیماری‌های واگیردار با تحلیل عملکرد واقعیت‌های موجود در چارچوب برنامه‌ریزی سناریو

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، گروه برنامه ‏ریزی شهری، دانشکدۀ جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دکتری برنامه‏ریزی شهری، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

3 دکتر‌ی علوم اقتصادی، دانشکدۀ علوم اجتماعی، اقتصاد و کارآفرینی، دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه، کرمانشاه، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به اهمیت استخراج عدم قطعیت‌ها و پیشران‌ها به ویژه در محیط‌های شهری پویا و متلاطم امروزی جهت انجام طیف وسیعی از مطالعات برای تاب‌آوری شهرها در مواجهه با بیماری‌های واگیردار در بستر آینده پژوهی مانند تدوین راهبرد، ارزیابی راهبرد، تدوین سناریو و طراحی چارچوب فرایند شناسایی عدم قطعیت‌ها و پیشران‌ها ضروری است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی، از حیث روش‌پیمایشی در سطح اکتشافی و مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی صورت گرفته‌است. در این مطالعه ما برانیم با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی به شناسایی عوامل موثر کلیدی محیط‌های شهری بر شیوع بیماری‌های واگیردار بپردازیم. در این پژوهش با استفاده از روش دلفی و مشارکت 30 نفر متخصص نتایج در محیط نرم افزار میک مک تحلیل شد و سپس این عوامل براساس میزان اهمیت و عدم‌قطعیت، اولویت‌بندی‌ و حیاتی‌ترین عوامل مشخص، و برای شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی از نرم‌افزار (Micmac) استفاده شده است. نتایج حاکی از آنست که متغیرهای ضعف خدمات شهری، ضعف امکانات بهداشتی، ضعف مدیریت‌شهری، توزیع نامناسب درآمد، مهاجرت روستائیان به شهر، توسعه نامتوازن، ضعف سرزندگی، کمبود درآمد در شهر نورآباد ممسنی عنوان مهم‌ترین متغیرهای موثر محیط شهری نورآباد بر شیوع بیماری‌های واگیردار شناسایی شدند. و سپس با استفاده از نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد پنج سناریوی سازگار قوی با توجه به ویژگی‌های خاص مشخص شدند. از بین این پنج سناریو، سناریوی اول دارای شرایط ایده‌آل و مطلوب (سناریوی محرک)، سناریوی دوم مناسب و دارای وضعیت متوسط و سناریوی سوم، چهارم و پنجم دارای وضعیت بحرانی و نامطلوب و در مواجهه شهر نورآباد با بیمارهای واگیردار نشان دهنده وضعیت نامطلوب است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Management of future urban space uncertainties on the prevalence of infectious diseases by analyzing the performance of existing realities in the context of scenario planning (Case study: Nurabad, Fars)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ahmad Pourahmad 1
  • Mohammad Reza Amiri Fahlyiani 2
  • Nazanin Zahra Setoudeh 3
1 Professor, Department of Urban Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 PhD in Urban Planning, Department of Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran
3 PhD in Economics, Department of Social Sciences, Economics and Entrepreneurship , Razi University of Kermanshah, Kermanshah, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
In this study, we will discuss the future effects of the man-made environment on the exacerbation of chronic and infectious diseases in Iranian cities with a case study of the city of Noorabad, Fars. And our goal is to review the environmental variables of this city (that is, the spatial and functional structure of cities) in the form of a structural analysis that lays the ground for further and deeper studies of each of these different cases that are rooted in the fabric of the structure and function of our cities. And, of course, it is a part of these elements and determines the quality and vitality of the urban environment, and is a factor for improving the quality of the urban environment and, accordingly, the physical and mental endurance of the citizens in the face of infectious diseases that occur every year in the cities of the world. and makes Iran subject to numerous human, social and economic damages. With the approach of future research, we will identify the key factors and drivers and the effects of these key factors that result from the urban environment of Noorabad when we are faced with infectious diseases and the future scenarios. The main question of the current research is, what are the key effective factors of Noorabad city on the aggravation of the situation of infectious diseases in the field of forecasting? And what are the strong scenarios of uncertainties in the urban space of Noorabad in the face of infectious diseases?
Materials and Methods
The current research is descriptive-analytical and exploratory. From this point of view, it is an exploration that does not seek to confirm or reject the relationship between two variables, and its purpose is not to test a hypothesis, but rather to identify the drivers of the influence of spatial characteristics on the spread of infectious diseases. The method of collecting information is library and field. This research is practical in terms of purpose. Environmental scanning and Delphi techniques have been used to identify variables and indicators.
The statistical population of the research in this section is all experts related to health and urban issues, and due to the unknown number of population for sampling, 30 people have been purposefully selected and surveyed. In order to collect the required information, two library and field methods were used. In the library and documentation method, the theoretical foundations and the background of the subject have been examined, and the survey work includes the completion of a questionnaire, which has been used to collect relevant information using a questionnaire with open questions. The design and completion of the questionnaire in the current research consists of four parts. In the first part, by using the Delphi method along with the environmental survey, the effective factors in the spread of infectious diseases in urban areas were extracted and finally 39 effective factors were identified among them. A key has been provided to experts. Based on the relationship between the factors, the experts have given scores to the factors between 0 and 3 in pairs.
In order to determine the key variables affecting the spread of infectious diseases in the urban environment, the key variables have first been identified. In order to identify the key variables on the spread of disease in urban environments, the studies conducted in this field were used and the effective components and factors were identified. The identified components and variables are a combination of foreign and domestic studies in this field.
Findings
Among the 39 variables studied, eight variables including: lack of income, intensity of migration to Noorabad city, security, poor education, inappropriate distribution of urban services among neighborhoods, lack of green space, inappropriate income distribution and unemployment were found as influential variables.
The next type of variables in the influence graph are bimodal variables. These variables can be divided into two groups: risk variables and target variables. Among the examined variables, a total of 11 variables from different groups were identified as bimodal variables. These variables include: poor quality of the environment, lack of health facilities, poor vitality, economic characteristics of neighborhoods, lack of walking paths in the city, lack of women’s parks, the existence of worn-out fabric, inactivity, lack of physical activities, unbalanced urban development, They were the weakness of urban management.
Regulatory variables are located around the center of gravity of the chart and sometimes act as secondary leverage variables (weak target variables and weak risk variables). In the graph of influence and influence of variables affecting the condition of Noorabad city, 4 variables include; The low per capita green space, the lack of bicycle paths, the lack of justice in the spatial distribution of urban services, and the lack of children’s parks are included.
The next type of variables are influencing or outcome variables. The position of these variables in the graph is in the south-east of the plan of impact-ability. These variables have very low influence and very high influence. In the present study, the variables; Improper distribution of green space, poor personal health, poor social solidarity, poor public health, growth of intra-city trips, social characteristics of neighborhoods were obtained as influential variables or results.
The last variable identified in the influence graph of the investigated factors are independent variables; These variables have a low level of influence and effectiveness, which are located in the southwestern part of the variable dispersion plane. In this research, the variables, weak driving culture, inappropriate use of fast food, inappropriate diet, and urban form were identified. These variables do not cause any reaction in other variables.
 Conclusion
The present study tried to determine the most important environmental variables of Noorabad city in the face of infectious diseases by using 39 indicators and using the model of prospective studies of mik-mak and analysis of mutual effects. The results indicate that the indicators of urban services, weak health facilities, weak urban management, inappropriate distribution of income, migration, unbalanced development, weak vitality, lack of walking paths, lack of income and spatial justice in the city of Noorabad Mamsani as the most important The effective variables of the urban environment on the spread of infectious diseases and corona were identified. All these factors have negative consequences in the health of this urban society.
Based on CIB, we found five scenarios with strong compatibility: Scenario 1 is ideal and desirable for the future of Noorabad’s atmosphere in the face of infectious diseases. Scenarios 2 have stable characteristics and are not suitable for design strategy. And scenario 3, 4 and 5 have inappropriate and critical features for the future of Noorabad city’s environmental situation. In this research, in terms of frequency, the critical scenario has the highest number of robin scenarios of other groups. The results show that scenario 1 is a stimulating scenario in improving the environmental condition of Noorabad city in the face of infectious diseases. If this scenario is realized, it will cover all the important factors to improve the condition of the urban space of Noorabad.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Effective Propulsion
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Noorabad Mamasani
  • Uncertainty
  • Scenario
  • Urban Environment
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